Intra-annual snow cover variations as a potential explanation for eruption seasonality at Villarrica Volcano (Chile)

Julie De Groote
Persbericht

Vulkanen met lentekriebels

Eén van de meest actieve vulkanen in Chili heeft last van lentekriebels en dat is geen toeval! Uitbarstingen in de lente lijken voorspelbaar, maar de klimaatopwarming zou wel eens een spelbreker kunnen zijn…

 

Meer dan vijftien jaar geleden merkten Chileense wetenschappers op dat er een seizoensgebonden patroon aanwezig lijkt te zijn in de uitbarstingen van de Villarricavulkaan in Chili. Toeval of niet? Wel, met behulp van statistische berekeningen konden wij aantonen dat de meeste erupties in de afgelopen eeuwen inderdaad startten in de lente. Nooit eerder werd naar een verklaring gezocht voor dit opmerkelijke en voorspelbare patroon van vulkaanuitbarstingen. Tot nu!

Image of Villarrica Volcano

De Villarricavulkaan barst vaker uit in de lente omwille van de smeltende sneeuwbedekking.

 

De invloed van winterse sneeuw en de lentezon

De Villarricavulkaan lijkt last te hebben van lentekriebels na een eerder bedrukt wintergevoel. En dat mag je letterlijk nemen. Met behulp van lokale klimatologische gegevens en satellietbeelden in combinatie met numerieke modellering konden we aantonen dat de dikke sneeuwlaag die in de winter de vulkaan bedekt (ca. 10 m) druk uitoefent bovenop de magmakamer en ervoor zorgt dat uitbarstingen in de winter worden onderdrukt. Dit zorgt echter slechts voor een tijdelijk uitstel, want wanneer de sneeuw vervolgens in de lente smelt, worden uitbarstingen bevorderd door de afname van de druk in de ondergrond. Dit uitbarstingspatroon met een verminderd aantal erupties in de winter en vooral een verhoogd aantal vulkaanuitbarstingen in de lente, dat veroorzaakt wordt door de jaarlijkse sneeuwcyclus, vinden we terug bij vulkanen die net als de Villarricavulkaan een bolvormige of oblate (~ afgeplatte bol) magmakamer hebben.  

Langs de andere kant kan extra druk door sneeuw op een vulkaan in de winter ook zorgen voor een verhoogde druk in de magmakamer. Een uitbarsting in de winter zou dus ook net bevorderd kunnen worden in plaats van tegengehouden. Dat is het geval wanneer de magmakamer eerder prolaat is (~ zoals een rechtopstaande rugbybal) en geldt dus niet voor de Villarricavulkaan.

Illustration of oblate and prolate shape

De vorm van de magmakamer van een vulkaan bepaalt hoe de vulkaan zal reageren op de verandering in sneeuwbedekking doorheen het jaar (Links oblaat en rechts prolaat).

 

De klimaatverandering als spelbreker?

De wereldwijde klimaatopwarming is ook in Chili te voelen. Klimaatmodellen voorspellen dat de huidige trends in stijgende temperatuur en afnemende neerslag in de regio rond de Villarricavulkaan zich ook in de toekomst zullen voortzetten. Hierdoor verwachten we een afname van de winterse sneeuwbedekking op de vulkaan. Deze toekomstige dunnere en minder uitgestrekte winterse sneeuwbedekking zal volgens onze modellen ook leiden tot een minder uitgesproken seizoensgebonden patroon van de uitbarstingen van de vulkaan. De opwarming van de aarde kan dus zorgen voor een minder voorspelbaar uitbarstingspatroon van de Villarricavulkaan in Chili.

Graphical illustration of the influence of climate change on eruption seasonality

De klimaatverandering zorgt ervoor dat de Villarricavulkaan mogelijks in de toekomst van zijn lentekriebels verlost wordt.

 

Het lijkt er dus op dat alvast de Villarricavulkaan soms last heeft van lentekriebels. Bovendien hebben andere vulkanen met een winters sneeuwdekentje en een eerder oblate magmakamer er waarschijnlijk ook mee te maken. Als door de klimaatsverandering de (Chileense) winters in de toekomst minder streng worden, dan zullen die vulkanen mogelijks van hun lentekriebels verlost worden. Andere vulkanen krijgen er dan echter misschien net wél last van…

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Universiteit of Hogeschool
Master of Science in Geology
Publicatiejaar
2022
Promotor(en)
Maarten Van Daele & Virginie Pinel
Kernwoorden
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